Hannah Kimani, head of the Public Weather Services Section at the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority, has said that the El Niño climate pattern is already affecting Kenya rather than approaching, bringing unexpected heat and prolonged dry spells across several regions. Speaking at the 5th Annual Journalists Climate Training hosted by Power Shift Africa in Kigali, Rwanda, she explained that many people misunderstand what the warming cycle entails.

Climate prediction scientists announced in June 2026 that a super El Niño had formed, expected to be one of the strongest on record. This phenomenon occurs when the Pacific Ocean's surface warms unusually, impacting global weather patterns and potentially leading to extreme events like droughts and floods. In southern Africa, previous cycles have resulted in severe hot and dry conditions, affecting millions and threatening marine life such as seals and sea lions.

Kenya Meteorological Department Principal Meteorologist Joyce Kimutai has said the 2026 El Niño is unlikely to produce rainfall on the scale recorded in 1997, though Kenya should still expect above-normal rainfall. Speaking in an interview on September 9, Kimutai said current El Niño conditions are relatively weaker than those of 1997, according to The Kenya Times.

Kenya's weather forecast indicates that the country will experience dry conditions overall, but rain is expected in the Rift Valley and Nyanza regions within the next 24 hours. The forecast also warns of cold spells, strong winds, and scattered thunderstorms.

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has issued a five-day weather forecast predicting generally dry conditions across most of Kenya, with rainfall expected in specific areas including parts of the Rift Valley, Nyanza, Western, Central, and Coastal regions from July 4 to July 8, 2026. The forecast indicates intermittent cool and cloudy weather in these regions.

The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued a 24-hour weather forecast for September 9, warning of rainfall in nine counties. According to Tuko, light showers and thunderstorms are expected in Trans Nzoia and Uasin Gishu counties, while Turkana is forecast to experience high temperatures reaching 37 degrees Celsius. The forecast provides detailed updates on expected weather conditions across the country for the coming day.