The Daily News of Tanzania warns that forecasts of heavy El Niño rains in the coming season should prompt early preparedness rather than being dismissed as routine weather talk. According to the World Meteorological Organization, El Niño is firmly established and expected to strengthen further, bringing major shifts in weather patterns. Climate experts quoted in the report stress that action must begin before the first torrential rains arrive, urging authorities and communities to take preventive measures to avoid disaster, particularly in Dar es Salaam and other vulnerable areas.

Tanzania's meteorological agency has warned that a "very strong" El Niño is forming over the Indian Ocean, with this year's Vuli rains expected to begin in late September or early October, intensify through November 2026, and persist beyond. According to Daily News, TMA Director General Dr Ladislaus Chang'a issued the warning as concerns grow that extreme weather could trigger a wave of non-performing loans, prompting calls for Tanzanian banks to prepare for climate-related financial risks.

Kenyan weather experts are divided over the onset and distribution of the country's October–December 2026 short rains, as major global forecasting models send conflicting signals. According to Ghafla Kenya, the uncertainty stems from complex interactions between a strong El Niño, an emerging positive Indian Ocean Dipole, and an unstable Madden-Julian Oscillation tropical wave, leaving the timing of the expected rains unclear.

Climate prediction scientists announced in June 2026 that a super El Niño had formed, expected to be one of the strongest on record. This phenomenon occurs when the Pacific Ocean's surface warms unusually, impacting global weather patterns and potentially leading to extreme events like droughts and floods. In southern Africa, previous cycles have resulted in severe hot and dry conditions, affecting millions and threatening marine life such as seals and sea lions.

The Eastleigh Voice explains that El Niño, a natural climate pattern driven by warmer-than-usual surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, does not necessarily bring heavy rainfall everywhere it influences. While the phenomenon alters weather patterns worldwide, its effects vary by region, meaning some areas may experience typical or even drier conditions. The explainer aims to clarify common misconceptions about how El Niño affects local weather.

Kenya's government has issued a fresh alert on expected El Niño rains forecast for the October–November–December 2026 season. Government Spokesperson Charles Owino said in a September 10, 2026 press statement that authorities have adopted a coordinated, multi-agency approach to prepare for the rains, which are projected to begin in October and continue into early 2027, according to The Kenya Times.